$DLTR falling to $15.00?

Could this $DLTR fall as low as $15.00 now?

I’m currently working on doing another video in the next few days going over my recently closed and open positions again as a sort of update on how things are going. I’ll no doubt shout about it on here once it’s up for viewing.

In the meantime I wanted to talk about $DLTR (Dollar Tree Inc). This stock has been trending LONG since before the dinosaurs were around apparently (or at least before my 2 year chart that I currently have open whilst writing this, i’m too lazy to check, but at least i’m honest about it right?),

However, a few signals began to appear recently that caught my attention. The first was on 20/07/2012 when it fell below the 50 day moving average (DMA). This however had happened a few times in the past and it had recovered. Watching it further on 30/07/12 it failed to reach back above the 50 DMA before falling back down. By 12/09/2012 it had hit the 50 DMA and fallen a lot further to $46.00 it’s lowest price since March 2012. It was a 6 month low. It had also fallen under the 200 day moving average not long after.

Looking at my Moving Averages it had trigged a SELL signal on my short term system back on 19/07/12, a SELL signal on my medium term setup on 06/09/12 and it is yet to show a SELL on my long term system setup but looks like it is on route to that.

With both short and medium signals being triggered for a sell I went SHORT $DLTR on 10/10/12. A little late really as I have missed out on about 400 points since my short term trigger appeared. I go into trades with these short term crossovers all the time but missed this one.

However, I was not too disappointed as the next day it went up 2pts before falling -333 points. After market close (i’m an end of day trader and only found out in the evening) I opened a 2nd SHORT position expecting this price could fall even further.

If you take a look at the chart, i’m beginning to wonder if this price could go all the way back down to $32.00 or maybe even $15.00 where the price sat before the big trend started around 2009. Of course, no one knows what will happen. It could go back up tomorrow, but I can’t help but feel there’s some potential in selling this stock right now. Looking at a long term 200/400 crossover it could be another few months before we see the 200 below the 400. If that happens I will be opening some more positions as that’ll be an even stronger sign that the price is going to go very very low.

 

 

Here’s a excerpt of my current open position on this stock. I’m playing small and adding positions as the price moves in the direction I like.

If this stock does fall to $15.00 then it has potential to make me a good deal of profit this year. We’ll wait and see I guess.

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3 Comments on “$DLTR falling to $15.00?”

  1. Hi Chris.

    Noticed that DLTR moved up approx 200 points yesterday so looked at their Investor Relations page and saw that they have had good 3rd qtr earnings. Q4 projections look favourable too.

    So do you look at news for a share when there are large movements in the opposite direction to your trades and if so do you ever consider closing them or will you still wait for the charts to tell you when to get out?

    1. Hi Nigel

      No I’m disassociating stocks from news now. $DLTR has locked in profit for me now so if it goes up and hits my exit I’m still taking something. But I’ll stay open now until it hits my stop.

      For all we know the market has already factored in good results for Q4. If that’s the case and the results are slightly lower than the market expectations the price could well fall again. Not saying it will as I’m not in the business of making predictions but I won’t exit because of news. I’ll wait to see if it happens first. Means I might lose a chunk of profit but over the long term I’m comfortable with that.

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