I’m currently working on doing another video in the next few days going over my recently closed and open positions again as a sort of update on how things are going. I’ll no doubt shout about it on here once it’s up for viewing.
In the meantime I wanted to talk about $DLTR (Dollar Tree Inc). This stock has been trending LONG since before the dinosaurs were around apparently (or at least before my 2 year chart that I currently have open whilst writing this, i’m too lazy to check, but at least i’m honest about it right?),
However, a few signals began to appear recently that caught my attention. The first was on 20/07/2012 when it fell below the 50 day moving average (DMA). This however had happened a few times in the past and it had recovered. Watching it further on 30/07/12 it failed to reach back above the 50 DMA before falling back down. By 12/09/2012 it had hit the 50 DMA and fallen a lot further to $46.00 it’s lowest price since March 2012. It was a 6 month low. It had also fallen under the 200 day moving average not long after.
Looking at my Moving Averages it had trigged a SELL signal on my short term system back on 19/07/12, a SELL signal on my medium term setup on 06/09/12 and it is yet to show a SELL on my long term system setup but looks like it is on route to that.
With both short and medium signals being triggered for a sell I went SHORT $DLTR on 10/10/12. A little late really as I have missed out on about 400 points since my short term trigger appeared. I go into trades with these short term crossovers all the time but missed this one.
However, I was not too disappointed as the next day it went up 2pts before falling -333 points. After market close (i’m an end of day trader and only found out in the evening) I opened a 2nd SHORT position expecting this price could fall even further.
If you take a look at the chart, i’m beginning to wonder if this price could go all the way back down to $32.00 or maybe even $15.00 where the price sat before the big trend started around 2009. Of course, no one knows what will happen. It could go back up tomorrow, but I can’t help but feel there’s some potential in selling this stock right now. Looking at a long term 200/400 crossover it could be another few months before we see the 200 below the 400. If that happens I will be opening some more positions as that’ll be an even stronger sign that the price is going to go very very low.
Here’s a excerpt of my current open position on this stock. I’m playing small and adding positions as the price moves in the direction I like.
If this stock does fall to $15.00 then it has potential to make me a good deal of profit this year. We’ll wait and see I guess.